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Journal of Evolutionary Biology

Oxford University Press (OUP)

Preprints posted in the last 90 days, ranked by how well they match Journal of Evolutionary Biology's content profile, based on 110 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.07% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

1
Phenotypic integration and morph-specific strategies in a colour-polymorphic lizard, Ctenophorus pictus.

LeBas, N. R.; Tomkins, J. L.; Olsson, M. L.

2026-05-13 evolutionary biology 10.64898/2026.05.09.723938 medRxiv
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The evolution of alternative male reproductive strategies represents an intriguing evolutionary phenomenon. Divergent strategies are persistently at risk of local extinction or invasion, depending on the suites of traits expressed within and between morphs; hence, understanding the correlational selection that aligns reproductive strategies with behaviour, morphology and physiology is key to understanding the origin and maintenance of genetic polymorphisms. In the polychromatic painted dragon, Ctenophorus pictus, yellow, orange and red morphs are well characterised, but the blue morph has been historically absent from studied populations. Here we document the local distribution, morphology and male-contest interactions in a population where blue males are relatively common. We find that blue males express head colouration after a reaching a threshold body size, and that small blue males can reside in close proximity to other males; patterns consistent with a novel size-dependent conditional tactic within the suite of genetic strategies seen in this species. Condition-dependent, positively allometric throat bibs were non-randomly distributed among male morphs, implicating variation in correlational selection and the genetic architecture of the polymorphism. We were unable to definitively assign a morph that was superior in male competition but found that within morphs, male size was the determinant of competitive success, whilst between morphs it was not. Furthermore, contests between morphs were resolved with less aggression than contests within morphs, supporting the idea that badges resolve conflict, and that the invasion of new colour morphs may be facilitated by negative frequency dependent benefits to novel colour variants. These findings highlight the divergent phenotypic, genetic and selective environments that lead to the diversity of colour morphs.

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Sexual difference in defense can drive the evolution of imperfect Mllerian mimicry in the less defended sex

Kuo, C.-Y.

2026-05-26 evolutionary biology 10.64898/2026.05.21.727037 medRxiv
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Mullerian mimicry is the convergent evolution of warning signals among sympatric prey driven by predator learning. Theory therefore predicts signal homogeneity both within communities and within species that participate in Mullerian mimicry. Though rare, sexual dimorphism in Mullerian species does occur, but the underlying eco-evolutionary mechanisms are still relatively unexplored. Basing on the biology of aposematic butterflies, this study uses a modeling approach to test the hypothesis that sexual difference in defense can lead to the evolution of imperfect Mullerian mimicry in the less defended females as the consequence of opposing demands to minimize the cost of automimicry while maximizing reproductive output. Additionally, both the occurrence and degree of sexual dimorphism would decrease when the less defended sex becomes more valuable for reproduction, for example when offspring sex ratio is male biased or when females can mate only once in their lifetime. Findings from this study could help explain the evolution of extreme sexual dimorphism in some Mullerian systems, in which each sex mimics different models. Moreover, through understanding this intriguing exception to the rule, we will be able to gain a more complete picture of how a multitude of selective forces might shape the diversity in prey phenotypes.

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Differential selection between sexes and the evolution of recombination in haplodiploids

Patel, V.; Roze, D.

2026-07-03 evolutionary biology 10.64898/2026.06.29.735359 medRxiv
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Eusocial Hymenoptera present the highest known recombination rates among metazoans, which evolved several times independently among bees, ants and wasps. Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain this observation, including stronger selection for recombination caused by coevolving parasites and pathogens, and strong sexual selection among haploid males due to male-biased sex ratios among reproductive individuals. In this article, we explore the effects of haplodiploidy and differential selection between sexes on the evolution of recombination, by analyzing a three-locus model in which selection for recombination stems from negative epistasis between selected loci. Our analytical predictions are compared with the results of individual-based simulations in which deleterious mutations occur along a linear chromosome. Our results show that, at mutation-selection balance for deleterious alleles, increasing the strength of selection against deleterious alleles (due to the effect of male haploidy and/or sexual selection) tends to reduce selection for recombination. However, an increase in the overall magnitude of negative epistasis (which may also be due to male haploidy and/or sexual selection) combined with the fact that recombination only occurs in females may increase selection for recombination substantially. Our model also shows that, in conditions favoring recombination, increasing recombination in meioses leading to parthenogenetic ovules (and male offspring) may yield stronger benefits than in meioses leading to fertilized ovules (and female offspring).

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Juvenile-mimicry explains adult-juvenile resemblance in swallows and martins (Aves: Hirundinidae)

Hasegawa, M.

2026-05-29 evolutionary biology 10.64898/2026.05.26.728048 medRxiv
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A similar phenotype exhibited by both adults and juveniles is often considered a self-evident default state due to shared genes and similar ecological niches, and thus the function of adult-juvenile resemblance is rarely addressed. An adaptive explanation for adult-juvenile resemblance is that adults mimic juveniles to attract mates by exploiting their parental care behavior and to avoid agonistic intrasexual combat from rivals that tolerate juveniles (i.e., the juvenile-mimicry hypothesis). Using a phylogenetic comparative approach, we tested the juvenile-mimicry hypothesis in aerial foragers, swallows and martins (Aves: Hirundinidae), in which adults and juveniles frequently encounter one another in their open habitat. We predicted that, if adults mimic juveniles, adult-juvenile resemblance should be enhanced in species with many young (i.e., a large number of models in relation to mimics) as well as species with a few young (i.e., a default state with limited intensity of sexual selection). This prediction was confirmed by a quadratic relationship between number of juveniles and adult-juvenile resemblance. In addition, as predicted under the juvenile-mimicry hypothesis, adult-juvenile resemblance was enhanced in species with multiple broods, in which juvenile-mimicry would be particularly effective due to the mating period followed by juvenile production. The observed pattern could not be explained by sexual selection for male ornamentation alone (i.e., with no juvenile-mimicry) even when considering the cost of ornamentation. An alternative explanation that juveniles mimic adults is also unlikely, as the situation favors the opposite pattern. The current study therefore supports the juvenile-mimicry hypothesis, indicating an adaptive function of adult-juvenile resemblance.

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Does the evolution of predatory behaviour alter intermale aggression? Insights from a selection experiment on bank voles

Bhaskaran, G.; Boron, N.; Koteja, P.; Sadowska, E. T.

2026-06-17 evolutionary biology 10.64898/2026.06.16.732607 medRxiv
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Aggression occurs in many forms and can be an important adaptive behaviour. Two distinct forms are predatory and intermale aggression. It remains unclear whether they share genetic and neurobiological regulatory mechanisms and thus whether evolution of one may influence the other. We tested whether selection for increased predatory behaviour leads to increased intermale aggression using an experimental evolution model comprising lines of bank voles (Clethrionomys = Myodes glareolus) selected for high predatory propensity towards crickets (P lines) and unselected control lines (C lines). Adult males were tested in a cricket-hunting test followed by two intermale aggression tests. As expected, P-line males showed higher hunting propensity and performance than C-line males. In the intermale aggression test, a greater proportion of P-line males displayed aggressive behaviours (93% vs. 80%), they did it earlier (mean{+/-}SD: 116 {+/-} 144 s vs. 349 {+/-} 320 s), more frequently (33 {+/-} 38 vs. 12 {+/-} 17), and for longer (92 {+/-} 137 s vs. 31 {+/-} 52 s). P-line males also showed a proactive behavioural profile, whereas C-line males were vigilant, spending more time observing the opponent and staying immobile. These results indicate that predatory and intermale aggression partly share genetic and neural regulatory mechanisms.

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Do sex differences in autosomal recombination rates facilitate divergence?

Hansson, A.; Rafajlovic, M.

2026-04-29 evolutionary biology 10.64898/2026.04.27.721057 medRxiv
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Recombination rate varies within and between individuals. One form of such variations is seen between sexes in dioecious populations, with males typically exhibiting a smaller recombination rate than females. This is true both for sex chromosomes and autosomes (so-called heterochiasmy). Although a large body of theory exists on the role of sex chromosomes in adaptation and population divergence, much less is known about the role of heterochiasmy. Recently, it has been suggested that heterochiasmy can facilitate local adaptation and divergence, but if, and when this is true has not been systematically studied theoretically to date. Here we use Individual-based simulations to assess the effect of sex differences in autosomal recombination rates on the process of divergence and adaptation in populations subject to divergent selection and migration. We found evidence supporting that sex differences in autosomal recombination rate between adaptive loci can facilitate, and especially maintain, divergence, but this is true only under very limited conditions, involving strong selection, high sex-averaged effective recombination rates and relatively high rates of migration compared to the strength of selection. We further found that this effect, when present, is typically weak but is amplified in cases of highly polygenic adaptation in comparison to cases with a few adaptive loci of strong effect. We conclude that, in most cases, sex differences in autosomal recombination rate alone are unlikely to noticeably contribute to the process of adaptation and divergence. Further studies are needed to evaluate their effect in combination with other processes not considered in the present study, such as assortative mating between the alike mates, or recombination suppression in heterozygotes. TeaserIn dioecious populations, recombination rate typically differs between males and females. This is true both for sex chromosomes and autosomes. While much theoretical research has focused on understanding how recombination rate differences in sex chromosomes shape local adaptation and divergence, we lack theoretical knowledge of the potential role of sex differences in autosomal recombination rates. Recombination has a dual role in local adaptation. Strong recombination can effectively purge deleterious alleles, but it can also break apart beneficial allele complexes (and vice versa for weak recombination). Thus, one may expect that in the presence of both strong and weak recombination exhibited by females, and males, respectively, population divergence can be efficiently facilitated. But is this true? Here, we study this question theoretically using computer simulations. Our main finding is that sex differences in autosomal recombination can facilitate divergence, but this effect is typically weak and present only under very stringent conditions.

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Reinforcement influences the ability of cryptic female choice to exert conspecific sperm precedence in hybridizing Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and brown trout (Salmo trutta)

Hanley, C. P.; Wagle, R.; Lehnert, S. J.; Purchase, C. F.

2026-05-12 evolutionary biology 10.64898/2026.05.08.723816 medRxiv
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Conspecific sperm precedence via cryptic female choice is a post-ejaculatory selection process that reduces hybridization, and can be pronounced in sympatric species. In their native Europe, Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and brown trout (Salmo trutta) exert conspecific sperm precedence under heterospecific sperm competition, which is at least partially enabled by female reproductive fluid. We examined post-ejaculatory selection of both species in Newfoundland, Canada, where Atlantic salmon evolved in absence of brown trout, but now experience hybridization threats due to anthropogenic introductions. Using split-ejaculate and split-clutch in-vitro fertilizations we evaluated whether allopatric evolution has relaxed this selection in Atlantic salmon, and found that they had no ability to bias paternity towards conspecific males, whereas naturalized brown trout retained a strong ability to do so. Female reproductive fluid influenced this, as when fluid associated with a species eggs was swapped, hybridization increased. In the artificial situation of no female reproductive fluid during sperm competition, paternity changed dramatically, but sperm swimming performance did not predict it. Our findings contribute to understanding the evolution of cryptic female choice and how the mechanisms of reproductive isolation can be reinforced through sympatry, while also highlighting a new potential conservation concern for North American Atlantic salmon.

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Triploid asexual freshwater snails grow faster than sexual diploid conspecifics regardless of dietary phosphorus availability

Najev, B.; Minthorn, Z.; Gordon, S.; Bliss, J.; McInville, C.; Chloros, V.; Abdella, W.; Neiman, M.; Krist, A. C.

2026-06-24 evolutionary biology 10.64898/2026.06.19.733397 medRxiv
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The number of chromosome sets per nucleus is a fundamental trait, but why this number is nearly always two for multicellular eukaryotes remains unclear. Chromosomes are made of nucleic acids, which possess abundant phosphorus (P). Therefore, producing new chromosomes, as well as generating new cells and organismal growth, demands substantial phosphorus. Yet, because P is often limiting in nature, P availability could influence the prevalence of diploidy versus polyploidy. Here, we compare growth rates of diploid and triploid Potamopyrgus antipodarum, a freshwater snail, relative to P availability. Because diploid P. antipodarum are obligately sexual while obligately asexual individuals are polyploid, costs associated with sensitivity to P limitation in polyploids could also help explain the maintenance of sexual P. antipodarum. We raised juvenile diploid and triploid snails on either P-adequate or P-deficient diets and found that independent of P availability, juvenile triploid asexual snails grew faster and harbored higher P content as adults than sexual diploid conspecifics. Together, these results suggest life-history advantages of polyploidy or asexual reproduction that exacerbate rather than ameliorate the cost of sex. These outcomes suggest that P availability is unlikely to be a main driver of ploidy polymorphism or the maintenance of sex in P. antipodarum.

9
Population Resilience Under Environmental Deterioration in Socially Monogamous Systems with Mutual Mate Choice

Porwal, N.; Parrett, J. M.; Rogers, F.; Radwan, J.; Knell, R. J.

2026-06-03 evolutionary biology 10.64898/2026.06.01.729368 medRxiv
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Rapid environmental change and biodiversity loss make it increasingly important to identify factors influencing population extinction risk. Previous studies examining how mating systems can affect persistence of populations under environmental stress generally report higher extinction risks in monogamous than polygynous systems but have largely ignored extra-pair copulations (EPC) and paternity (EPP), despite the prevalence of genetic polyandry in socially monogamous species. Here, using an individual-based model, we study how EPP in socially monogamous systems affects population resilience under directional environmental change. We assume that in socially monogamous species, both sexes carry costly sexual ornaments, the elaboration of which depends on the strength of preference. The effect of EPPs on extinction risk depended on the strength of mate preference, population size, and the degree to which homozygosity affected fitness. Systems with EPCs are not simply intermediate in resilience between strict monogamy and polygyny: the preference strength interacts with mating system, leading to superior resilience of EPC systems compared to strictly monogamous and polygynous systems when choosiness and the negative consequences of heterozygosity loss are low, and EPP rates are high. However, this benefit was reduced in small populations due to faster loss of heterozygosity. At high choosiness, EPC systems exhibited lower resilience than socially polygynous choice systems because the higher reproductive skew of the latter system allowed them to adapt faster while not suffering from the demographic consequences of sexual signaling costs borne by females. Overall, our results suggest that EPCs can enhance population resilience when females obtain fertilizations from higher-condition extra-pair males compared to systems without EPC.

10
Testing the null model for polyandry: the need to breed explains multiple mating and constrains trading-up

McCorquodale, D. S.; Berson, J. D.; Dugand, R. J.; LeBas, N. R.; Tomkins, J. L.

2026-05-12 evolutionary biology 10.64898/2026.05.08.723703 medRxiv
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In most species, unmated individuals run the risk of dying with zero fitness. This strong selection on virgin females to mate may also explain why females subsequently remate, despite fitness costs; all that is required is a genetic correlation between virgin and non-virgin mating propensity. Despite being the null model for the evolution and maintenance of polyandry, this hypothesis has received no empirical test. We performed separate quantitative genetic and artificial selection experiments to test the presence of this cross-context genetic correlation in the cow-pea weevil, Callosobruchus maculatus. A quantitative genetic experiment did not find evidence of the hypothesised genetic correlation. However, after 13 generations of artificial selection on virgin mating latency, we found strong evidence for evolutionary divergence in remating latency. Females from lines selected for longer virgin mating latency took approximately twice as long to remate and, were less polyandrous if their virgin mating latency was longer. There was no evidence that females could mate indiscriminately and then trade-up, rather, trading up could only occur if virgin discrimination was present. Selection against virgin death will thus constrain both the evolution of non-virgin discrimination and trading up, increasing rates of polyandry. These findings reveal a genetic correlation between virgin and non-virgin latency to mate suggesting that polyandry may be maintained because of the need to breed.

11
Female reproductive fluid evolves rapidly to favor conspecific sperm

Pinzoni, L.; Morbiato, E.; Dorsey, O. C.; Hernandez Melo, J.; Devigili, A.; Gasparini, C.; Rosenthal, G.

2026-05-16 evolutionary biology 10.64898/2026.05.14.725137 medRxiv
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Avoiding fertilization with genetically incompatible partners, whether too similar or too divergent, is a central challenge for sexually reproducing organisms. Selection can favor mechanisms acting before and after mating, with postmating processes potentially compensating for constraints on premating choice. In the postmating context, female reproductive fluid (FRF) can modulate sperm performance and bias fertilization outcomes, but its contribution to reproductive isolation remains unclear. We tested whether FRF mediates discrimination against heterospecific and related sperm in two naturally hybridizing sister species of swordtails, Xiphophorus birchmanni and X. malinche, that diverge in premating behavior towards heterospecifics. Effects of FRF differed sharply between species. In X. malinche, FRF enhanced the velocity of conspecific sperm relative to heterospecifics, consistent with postmating discrimination against hybridization. In contrast, FRF in X. birchmanni did not favor conspecific sperm. Evidence for inbreeding avoidance was weaker, and we found no indication of a trade-off between discrimination against genetically similar and dissimilar sperm. These results show that female reproductive fluid can serve as a rapidly evolving axis of reproductive isolation through postmating female choice.

12
Condition manipulation reveals an increase in sex-specific additive genetic variance, and reduced intersex genetic covariances in Drosophila prolongata, a species with sexual trait exaggeration

Audet, T.; Vadivel, S.; Taylor, A.; Ammendolia, D.; Daanish, N.; Beghin, O.; Yang, R.; Yogaraajah, S.; Dworkin, I.

2026-06-20 evolutionary biology 10.64898/2026.06.18.733205 medRxiv
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The between sex genetic correlation for traits has long been hypothesized as a constraint to the evolution of sexual dimorphism. Both empirical and theoretical work has suggested that this constraint is influenced by genotype-sex-environment interactions. We examine genotype-sex-environment interactions in both sexually exaggerated and non-exaggerated legs of Drosophila prolongata, to examine the role of organismal condition on evolvability of an extreme trait. We employed a nested full-sib half-sib crossing design, providing food either ad libitum, or restricting food during larval growth, to each brood. When provided food ad libitum, inter-sex genetic correlations between traits is high and positive, whereas under food restriction this correlation substantially weakens, with a modest negative sign. Similarly, comparisons of the G matrix across sexes becomes less associated under food restriction. We discuss these results in the context of the growing appreciation of the factors that facilitate sex-specific evolutionary change.

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Competitive environment predicts weaponry in an intertidal sea anemone

Ramamurthy, S. V.; Stinnett, J. G.; Kaulback, C. S.; Berry, A. T.; Oakley, T. H.

2026-05-20 zoology 10.64898/2026.05.17.725755 medRxiv
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Animal weapons are ecologically important traits that mediate contests over limiting resources and can strongly influence survival and reproduction. Weapon traits often exhibit substantial intraspecific morphological diversity, raising questions about the ecological drivers of this variation. Acrorhagi are weapons produced by sea anemones that are used in intraspecific territorial encounters. Although acrorhagial morphology varies widely within species, patterns of intraspecific variation remain poorly characterized, and the extent to which such variation reflects differences in local intraspecific competition is unclear. Here, we conduct morphometric analyses to characterize within-population variation and allometry in acrorhagial traits of the solitary anemone Anthopleura sola. We show that these traits covary with habitats differing in conspecific density. The number of acrorhagi scaled positively with body size, and individuals occupying a high-density habitat tended to possess more acrorhagi than did similar sized individuals from a low-density habitat. In addition, anemones from high-density habitats exhibited longer acrorhagial cnidae, a pattern that was not explained by differences in body size or acrorhagial density. Together, these results suggest that competitive context influences weapon-related traits at multiple levels of biological organization, potentially via phenotypic plasticity or selective processes. More broadly, our findings highlight how fine-scale ecological variation may contribute to the maintenance of trait diversity within and across species.

14
Evolutionary divergence and adaptive potential of scototaxis in juvenile Trinidadian Guppies

Phelps, E. C.; Yong, L.; Prentice, P.; Fraser, B. A.; Postma, E.; Wilson, A. J.

2026-05-05 evolutionary biology 10.64898/2026.05.01.722148 medRxiv
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Matching habitat choice provides a mechanism for individuals to maximise their expected fitness by selecting an environment that better fits their phenotype. Many animals choose their local environment by evaluating levels of perceived predation risk against possible resource gain. To test if predation risk is a major driver of habitat choice, we quantify scototaxis, or preference for dark versus light backgrounds, in juvenile guppies. As light backgrounds increase visibility to predators, this aspect of habitat choice captures variation in boldness in small fishes. By rearing and testing 586 fish descended from ten natural populations from Trinidad under common garden conditions, we first quantify (broad sense) heritable variation, i.e. evolutionary potential, within populations. Next, we test for evolutionary divergence among populations in mean preference, and if present, whether ancestral predation regime is a mediator of divergence. Finally, we ask whether families and/or populations differ in the amount of behavioural variation they contain. Habitat choice varied among families (12% of total variance), consistent with heritable variation (0.2). We also found mean preference varies among populations (11% of total variance explained). Evolutionary divergence among-populations is partly explained by ancestral predation regime, with populations from low-predation sites showing a stronger average preference for dark backgrounds than high-predation populations from the same river. Additionally, we find that within-population behavioural variation is greater in high-predation populations. We conclude that guppy populations contain heritable variation that could facilitate adaptive evolution if scototaxis is subject to natural selection. Furthermore, while genetic drift may also contribute to evolutionary divergence among-populations, observed patterns are qualitatively consistent with local adaption to predation regime. Our results suggests that high predation sites favour bolder habitat choice on average, but also that local predation regime shape the evolutionary dynamics of variation, perhaps by maintaining shy-bold variation among-individuals or by favouring individuals with less-predicable behaviour.

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Natural variation in male frequency fails to predict inbreeding responses in Caenorhabditis elegans

Sosa, J.; Abraham, S.; Blanco, G.; Olivera, J.; Alonso, I.; Fierst, J. L.; Kapila, R.

2026-05-11 evolutionary biology 10.64898/2026.05.07.723510 medRxiv
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In androdioecious species like Caenorhabditis elegans, where the primary mode of reproduction is self-fertilization, the evolutionary role of males has long puzzled biologists. One proposed benefit of males is the potential to escape inbreeding depression. We tested this by enforcing seven generations of inbreeding across nine C. elegans strains differing in baseline male frequency and measuring competitive relative fitness before and after inbreeding. We then relaxed inbreeding for four generations to assess recovery. We predicted that strains with higher male frequency, and greater opportunity for outcrossing, would exhibit faster recovery once inbreeding was relaxed. Strains varied substantially in their responses with most showing significant fitness declines and partial recovery but neither the magnitude of inbreeding depression nor the extent of recovery correlated with male frequency. These results show that male frequency is a poor predictor of inbreeding responses and does not reliably reflect realized outcrossing or its fitness consequences.

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Adaptation to Environmental Variability Shapes Dormancy in Daphnia

Porter, R. J.; Bradshaw, L.; Marsh, I.; Doceti, M.; Bergland, A. O.

2026-05-07 evolutionary biology 10.64898/2026.05.06.723256 medRxiv
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Dormancy is a widespread adaptive strategy that allows organisms to survive in temporally varying habitats by suspending development and reproduction. Although environmental variability is expected to shape dormancy strategies, it remains unclear how differences in environmental variability and predictability influence both the production of dormant embryos and the termination of dormancy. We addressed these questions by comparing D. pulex and D. obtusa, two closely related species that inhabit environments differing in variability and predictability. We hypothesized that D. obtusa, which inhabits ephemeral environments, would exhibit a greater propensity for sexual reproduction and dormancy and would require stronger cues to break dormancy than D. pulex, which occurs in more permanent, predictable habitats. Consistent with our hypothesis, D. obtusa lineages produced significantly more males and ephippia than D. pulex when reared under identical laboratory conditions, indicating greater investment in sexual reproduction and dormancy. Contrary to our hypothesis, we found no difference in responsiveness to cues between the two species. Across species, embryos broke dormancy and hatched most readily after experiencing changes in cold and light, even if not experienced at the same time. In contrast, desiccation reduced the propensity to break dormancy. Together, these results indicate that species occupying more ephemeral environments invest more heavily in the production of dormant offspring, but that the environmental cues regulating dormancy termination appear broadly similar between species. This pattern suggests that while investment in dormancy may evolve in response to environmental variability, the mechanisms controlling dormancy termination are more conserved.

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Sexual selection does not predict long-term population trends in birds

Gomez, M.; Cooney, C. R.; Janicke, T.; MacDonald, R.; Morrow, E. H.

2026-05-18 evolutionary biology 10.64898/2026.05.18.725879 medRxiv
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Sexual selection is a major evolutionary force, yet its demographic consequences remain unclear. While experimental studies often report positive effects of sexual selection on traits linked to population performance, comparative studies often find null or negative associations with population persistence. One explanation for this discrepancy is that the demographic consequences of sexual selection depend on ecological context, particularly variation in mortality and fecundity. Here, we used six decades of abundance data and test whether sexual selection predicts population trends across 738 bird species from Europe and North America. We quantify sexual selection using complementary proxies capturing different components of sexual selection: mating system, sexual dichromatism, sexual size dimorphism and relative testes mass. We further assess whether the effect of sexual selection in population trends is mediated by mortality and fecundity. Across all proxies, we found no evidence that sexual selection is associated with population trends. This result is consistent across continents and robust to variation in mortality and fecundity. Our findings suggest that, despite its central role in shaping phenotypic evolution, sexual selection does not translate into consistent effects on long-term population trends at macroecological scales. More broadly, these results highlight a potential disconnect between evolutionary processes and population dynamics.

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Constrained body mass evolution and decoupled morphological rates in plesiosaurs

Zhao, R. J.; Zhang, C.

2026-06-29 paleontology 10.64898/2026.06.24.734298 medRxiv
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Body size, through its links to various physiological traits, has often been hypothesized to influence evolutionary rates. Negative body size-rate correlations have been reported in the morphological or molecular evolution of several extant vertebrate groups, including mammals, birds, reptiles, and teleost fishes. In this study, we estimated body masses for 89 species of plesiosaurs, a clade of Mesozoic aquatic reptiles, and found that their body size evolution conforms to a three-regime Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, indicative of constrained evolution. Rates of morphological evolution, inferred using the skyline fossilized birth-death process and the variable-rates model, show minimal support for a correlation with body size in this clade. Our results thus serve as a counterexample, suggesting that the negative body size-rate relationship is not a universal vertebrate pattern, but rather a trend restricted to certain lineages.

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Agent-based modelling of a nematode system provides general insights into the evolutionary constraints and modulators of phenotypic plasticity, bet-hedging, and environmental homeostasis

Tarantino, R.

2026-06-05 evolutionary biology 10.64898/2026.06.02.729670 medRxiv
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In this study, I implemented an agent-based model aimed at exploring the competition between plastic and non-plastic genotypes in a digital environment with periodic fluctuations in food resources, using the dimorphic nematode Pristionchus pacificus as a proxy for mixed-strategy systems showing a combination of stochastic and conditional phenotype production. Emerging behaviours generated in response to variation in three main variables, that is, i) intrinsic cost of plasticity, ii) timescale of environmental fluctuation, and iii) degree of plasticity, were monitored in terms of frequency and time to fixation of two alleles of the developmental switch gene eud-1, one enabling mouth-form dimorphism and predation, the other leading to the constitutive expression of a single, bacterivorous morph. Interestingly, while intermediate-to-long periods of environmental stability (in terms of generations) and a higher level of plasticity might favour the evolution of plastic strategies in a "cost-free" condition, the introduction and increase of inherent costs of plasticity could make pure bet-hedging more advantageous, induce a sequential collapse in the frequency of fixation of plastic strains and time of coexistence between strains, and make the invasion by non-plastic mutants more likely until a plateau is reached. In addition, asymmetries in fitness between the two morphs might be an almost necessary condition to enable the invasion of a non-plastic population by plastic genotypes. Collectively, while confirming some previous theoretical findings, these outcomes could uncover the sensitivity of a mixed-strategy system to even small changes in key variables, suggesting the existence of phase transitions and critical evolutionary constraints.

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The evolution of a condition-dependent mutation rate enhances evolvability

van Eldijk, T. J. B.; Riederer, J. M.; van Doorn, G. S.; Weissing, F. J.

2026-07-10 evolutionary biology 10.64898/2026.07.09.737419 medRxiv
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Empirical studies have demonstrated that mutation rates may change with individual condition, such as in the case of stress-induced mutagenesis. This has led to the hypothesis that condition-dependent (or "plastic") mutation rates could be selectively favoured, as the increased production of new mutants in times of maladaptation enhances evolvability, the ability to undergo adaptive evolution. However, while empirical evidence for condition-dependent mutation rates is accumulating, theoretical models studying their evolution are lacking. Here, we employ an individual-based simulation approach to examine the evolution of condition-dependent mutation rates in a changing environment. We find that condition-dependent mutation rates consistently evolve when the environment changes at an intermediate pace. Furthermore, populations with condition-dependent mutation rates are substantially better adapted to their (changing) environment. Finally, the evolutionary dynamics of condition-dependent mutation rates are both accelerated and destabilised when the mutation rate is self-referential (i.e., when mutator loci affect their own mutation rate). We conclude that condition-dependent mutation rates (and thus evolvability) can readily evolve in changing environments. Significance statementMutation provides the raw material for evolution. Mutation rates thus tune evolvability, the ability to undergo adaptive evolution: if mutation rates are too low, evolution is impeded; if mutation rates are too high, adaptive traits cannot be maintained. Using a theoretical model, we explore the evolution of plastic mutation rates that systematically depend on the condition of the organism and its environment. An example is stress-induced mutagenesis in bacteria, which is implicated in the evolution of antibiotic resistance. We show that plastic mutation rates readily evolve, providing "well-timed" variation specifically when organisms are poorly adapted. Such plastic mutation rates thus facilitate better adaptation to changing environments, and their evolution provides an example of evolvability itself evolving.